Prop Firm Challenge Simulator
See the real odds behind your trading plan. Enter your win rate, reward-to-risk, and risk per trade, and this runs thousands of randomized challenge attempts to estimate how often that plan reaches the profit target before it breaches the drawdown.
Share of your trades that close in profit over the long run.
How much a winner gains for every unit a loser costs.
Percent of the account you stake on each individual trade.
Gain needed to pass, as a percent of the starting balance.
Loss from the start that fails the account if you cross it.
How many trades you allow yourself within one attempt.
Based on 2,000 simulated runs — results vary run to run.
For educational purposes only. Read our risk warning before trading.
How the Simulation Works
No single formula can tell you whether a challenge passes — the order of wins and losses matters as much as the average. So the simulator plays out 2,000 full attempts. Each attempt starts at the balance and walks trade by trade: a random draw against your win rate decides if the trade wins or loses, the equity moves by your risk (scaled by the reward-to-risk ratio on a win), and the attempt ends the moment it reaches the profit target or breaches the drawdown. The share of attempts that reach the target is your estimated pass probability.
Key Concepts
| Concept | What it means |
|---|---|
| Monte Carlo | Runs many random trade sequences to estimate an outcome you can't solve with one formula. |
| Pass | An attempt reaches the profit target before it touches the drawdown limit. |
| Why it varies | Each run uses fresh random outcomes, so the estimate shifts slightly every time. |
Frequently Asked Questions
It is a method that answers a hard question by trying it thousands of times with random inputs. Here, each run plays out one full challenge attempt trade by trade. Counting how many of the 2,000 attempts reach the target gives a realistic probability that a fixed formula could never capture.
Every run draws a fresh set of random win-or-loss outcomes, so the pass rate moves by a few points each time even with identical inputs. That small wobble is honest — it shows the genuine spread of outcomes your plan can produce, not a single tidy number.
No. A high estimate means the plan passes often across many simulated attempts, but any single real attempt can still breach early from a bad run of losses. The number describes the odds, not your specific result. Trade your own plan, not the average.
Win rate and reward-to-risk together set whether your edge is positive at all, but risk per trade controls survival. Raising risk speeds up a pass and the breach in equal measure, so a large stake can quietly turn a winning edge into a frequent failure. Adjust each slider and watch the gauge respond.
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Related Reading
Go deeper on the market behind these numbers — strategy, risk and setup guides from our desks.
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