Binary Options Risk of Ruin Calculator
See the estimated chance of losing your whole account based on your win rate, payout, and how much you risk per trade. Tune the inputs to find a survivable position size.
Share of trades you historically close in profit.
What a winning trade returns on top of your stake.
Percent of your account staked on a single trade.
At a 55% win rate with an 85% payout and 5% risk per trade, you have roughly a 1-in-2 chance of losing the full account over a long run of trades.
For educational purposes only. Read our risk warning before trading.
How risk of ruin is estimated
First we find your per-trade edge from win rate (w) and payout (p): a win adds your payout, a loss costs your full stake. With a positive edge, we model the account as a fixed number of risk units and apply the classic gambler's-ruin formula. A negative or zero edge means ruin is effectively certain over enough trades.
Break-even win rate by payout
| Payout per win | Break-even win rate | What a positive edge needs |
|---|---|---|
| 60% | 62.5% | Win more than 62.5% of trades |
| 70% | 58.8% | Win more than 58.8% of trades |
| 80% | 55.6% | Win more than 55.6% of trades |
| 85% | 54.1% | Win more than 54.1% of trades |
| 90% | 52.6% | Win more than 52.6% of trades |
Frequently Asked Questions
It is the estimated probability of losing your entire account over a long sequence of trades, given your edge and bet size. It is a historical-style projection, not a prediction of any single session.
Smaller stakes mean more risk units in your account, which the formula raises to a higher power. Even a real edge can be wiped out by a losing streak if each trade risks too much capital.
If your win rate and payout produce a zero or negative per-trade edge, no position size can protect the account over time, so the model reports a 100% risk of ruin.
Many traders aim to keep it in the low single digits by combining a real positive edge with small per-trade risk. There is no level that removes risk entirely from leveraged trading.
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