Binary Options Expectancy Calculator
See whether a binary options setup has a real mathematical edge. Enter your win rate, payout, and stake to find your expected value per trade.
Share of trades you historically close in profit.
Broker return on a winning trade (e.g. 85% pays $0.85 per $1).
Amount risked on each individual trade.
This setup has a positive edge: you expect to gain about $0.0175 for every $1 risked over many trades.
For educational purposes only. Read our risk warning before trading.
How Binary Options Expectancy Works
In binary options a win returns the payout fraction while a loss costs your full stake. Expectancy weighs each outcome by its probability, telling you the average result per $1 risked over many trades. A positive number means a mathematical edge; a negative number means the odds favour the broker.
Break-even Win Rate by Payout
| Payout | Break-even Win Rate | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| 70% | 58.8% | You must win nearly 6 in 10 just to stay flat. |
| 80% | 55.6% | A solid edge needs better than 55.6%. |
| 85% | 54.1% | Win above 54.1% to push expectancy positive. |
| 90% | 52.6% | Higher payouts lower the bar to break even. |
| 95% | 51.3% | Close to a coin flip is enough at this payout. |
Frequently Asked Questions
Expectancy is the average amount you can expect to win or lose per trade over many trades, weighing each outcome by its probability. It is the clearest single measure of whether a strategy has a real edge.
A losing binary trade costs your full stake, but a win only returns the payout fraction. Lower payouts force you to win a larger share of trades just to break even, so payout directly sets the win rate you need.
Your break-even win rate is 1 / (1 + payout). At an 85% payout that is about 54.1%, so you need to win consistently above that level for expectancy to turn positive.
No. Expectancy is a long-run average based on your inputs; individual trades and short runs still vary widely. Use it as an educational guide alongside risk management, not as a promise of any outcome.
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