Inventory Report
Also known as: EIA crude inventories, stockpile data, supply data release, petroleum status report
What is it?
An inventory report is a scheduled release of how much of a commodity is currently sitting in storage, and it is one of the sharpest recurring volatility events in commodity markets. The best-known is the US petroleum status report, published every Wednesday at 14:30 UTC. What moves price is never the level itself but the gap between the number and what the market expected.
The 60 seconds before the release
- Crude: $78.40, barely moving
- Spread: 1 tick, or $10 a contract
- Expectation: a draw of 1.8 million barrels
- Order book: deep - a stop at $78.00 fills at $78.00
The 120 seconds after it
- Crude: $77.10 - 130 ticks lower, $1,300 a contract
- Spread: 8 ticks, or $80 a contract
- Print: a build of 4.2 million - a 6-million surprise
- Order book: thin - that same stop fills near $77.60
On one release, consensus was a draw of 1.8 million barrels and the print was a build of 4.2 million - a six-million-barrel surprise. Crude fell from $78.40 to $77.10 in under two minutes, $1,300 a contract, while the spread went from one tick to eight. That combination is what makes the release dangerous rather than merely volatile.
The largest move of the week arrives in the same seconds as the thinnest order book, so a stop resting at $78.00 can be filled nearer $77.60. Traders who want the move size into it deliberately; traders who do not simply need to know the release is on the calendar before they open a position that spans it.
Why it matters: A single inventory surprise can move a commodity more than a full quiet session, and it does it in the two minutes when spreads are at their widest.
It concentrates a session's worth of movement into a few minutes when spreads are widest and stops are most likely to fill far from their level.
Real-world example
A consensus 1.8-million-barrel draw that printed as a 4.2-million-barrel build dropped crude from $78.40 to $77.10 in under two minutes - $1,300 a contract - with the spread eight times normal.
How SignalBots handles it
SignalBots signals carry a stated entry, stop and expiry, so you can check a scheduled release against the trade's own window before you take it. See /risk-warning.
Pro tip
Read the previous release's surprise alongside this week's consensus - back-to-back builds tell a supply story that any single week's number cannot.
Common pitfalls
Trading the headline number instead of its distance from consensus. A build can send price higher if the market had positioned for something far worse.
Frequently asked questions
Which inventory reports matter most?
For crude, the weekly US petroleum status report and the industry estimate released the evening before it. Natural gas has its own weekly storage report, and agricultural markets follow monthly supply and demand estimates. Each has its own scheduled time.
Why does price sometimes move against the number?
Because the market had already priced in an expectation. A bearish build that is smaller than feared is bullish relative to positioning, so price can rise on a number that looks negative in isolation.
Should I hold a position through the release?
Only if you sized it for a gap rather than for normal conditions. Stops do not guarantee a fill at their level in those seconds, so the realistic worst case is wider than the distance to your stop and your capital is at risk.
How long does the volatility last?
The violent part is usually the first two to five minutes, with spreads normalising within about fifteen. The direction set in that window often persists for the session, but the tradeable edge in the spike itself is very short.
Do these releases affect anything besides the commodity?
Yes. Crude inventories move energy equities and commodity-linked currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone, so a forex position can be hit by a report you were not watching.
Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Historical and backtested results do not guarantee future performance. Read the full risk warning.
