Signal Accuracy
Also known as: accuracy, hit rate
What is it?
Signal accuracy is the historical share of a feed's signals that finished as winners, expressed as a percentage. It is the binary-options counterpart of win rate, and the most important thing to understand about it is that it is backward-looking: it describes how past signals performed and is never a promise that future ones will do the same. Accuracy on its own also means very little until you compare it to the break-even win rate set by the broker's payout.
Because binary options are all-or-nothing, a loss costs your full stake while a win pays only a fraction of it, so you must win more than half your trades just to break even. At an 80 percent payout the break-even point is roughly 56 percent, so a feed with 65 percent historical accuracy would have cleared that bar on past data, but only on past data. A lower payout raises the bar, and a feed sitting just above break-even has little margin once normal variation, sample size, and changing market conditions are taken into account.
Be especially careful with advertised accuracy figures: a high number measured over a tiny or cherry-picked sample is not dependable, and no honest figure is ever a guaranteed outcome. Binary options are high-risk, all trading can lose money, and your capital is at risk regardless of any accuracy a feed reports.
Why it matters: Accuracy must clear the payout's break-even threshold to be profitable, and it is a past measure, not a promise - we never present it as guaranteed.
Accuracy % = winning signals / total signals x 100
Accuracy relative to the payout's break-even point decides whether a binary feed is viable at all.
Real-world example
A feed with 65% historical accuracy clears the ~56% break-even needed at an 80% payout - on past data, not as a guarantee.
How SignalBots handles it
SignalBots presents signal accuracy as a historical figure against the relevant payout break-even, linking to /risk-warning.
Pro tip
Compare a feed's accuracy to the break-even win rate implied by your payout; accuracy alone, without that benchmark, is meaningless.
Common pitfalls
Taking an advertised accuracy figure as a future guarantee, ignoring sample size and changing market conditions.
Frequently asked questions
Does a high advertised accuracy guarantee profit?
No. Accuracy is a past statistic that must beat the payout's break-even rate, and future results can differ. All trading carries risk of loss.
How do I know if a feed's accuracy is good enough?
Compare it to the break-even win rate set by your payout. At an 80 percent payout that is about 56 percent, so accuracy below the break-even point loses money over time.
Why does sample size matter for accuracy?
A high accuracy over a few trades can be luck. The more trades behind the figure, the more meaningful it is, though even a large past sample never guarantees future results.
Is accuracy the only number I should look at?
No. Accuracy is meaningless without the payout it is measured against, and you should also consider how the feed performed across different conditions, not just a headline figure.
Can a feed's accuracy drop over time?
Yes. Market conditions change, and a feed that cleared break-even in the past can fall below it later. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and capital is always at risk.
Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Historical and backtested results do not guarantee future performance. Read the full risk warning.