The European Central Bank held its deposit rate at 4.00% today, in line with consensus, sending EUR/USD into a tight 30-pip range as traders pivot to Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls.
What changed in the statement
The forward guidance softened modestly. References to "data-dependent calibration" replaced last meeting's "restrictive for as long as necessary" language — a small but watched shift by macro desks.
Market reaction
- EUR/USD: ranging 1.0865 – 1.0895 since the press conference.
- German 10Y Bund yield: down 4 bps to 2.41%.
- EUR/JPY: extended its multi-week downtrend on broader yen strength.
Positioning data from the IMM shows speculative euro longs at a four-month low, which leaves more room for an upside surprise on a soft NFP than the price action suggests.
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